They're at 32.9% in three games against Miami after making 37.9% in the regular season. but the Nuggets are undershooting during the Finals. The Heat may be overshooting expectations this postseason. Eventually their shooting luck is going to run out. It might happen, but it would be irresponsible to bet on it happening when they shot 34.4% in the regular season. Their only path to victory is making a bunch of 3's. Despite reaching the Finals, the Heat rank 13th out of the 16 playoff teams in 2-point field goal percentage this postseason. When they've been below 40%? They've averaged 104 points.
In those games, they've averaged just under 118 points per game. They've shot 40% or better from 3-point range in nine playoff games. They're averaging 100 points exactly across their last seven games.
Let's take the 10,000-foot view here: Denver has held Miami below 100 points twice, and while Denver's defense has improved considerably from where it was a few years ago, no one would mistake it for an elite unit.
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